There are lies, damned lies and statistics, according to the old adage.

At this time of year, travel journalists like myself get bombarded with all sorts of polls, research results and predictions about the latest hotspots and trends for the coming 12 months.

The reason being that public relations people are desperate to get their travel client companies mentioned in the press during the deepest depths of winter, a time when people usually begin thinking about booking their summer sun holidays.

It goes without saying that 2009 is not going to be a normal year for holiday-taking amid dire forecasts for the national and global economies.

So it has come as little surprise that the usual flow of holiday stats has turned into a complete deluge this new year. And you know what? Most contradict each other.

Some suggest UK holidays will be booming as people tighten their belts and opt for domestic breaks in ’09, while others claim that we will all be jetting off to far flung destinations to escape the crippling eurozone exchange rate.

However, when one extrapolates all these surveys a number of clear trends about 2009 do start to emerge.

Firstly, countries that do not use the euro will be favoured as providing better value for money and, secondly, the number of holidays likely to be taken by each of us this year will be reduced.

And the most earth-shattering statistic of them all? We’ll be chasing bargains like never before.

Fortunately, none of the cruise companies I am aware of have sought to indulge in this new year survey mania.

Could this be because they have a greater degree of confidence in their offering than other travel companies?

Because on a cruise it is entirely possible to sail in eurozone waters, whether in the Med, Canaries or Northern Europe, yet still budget ahead in sterling.

UK cruise companies’ on board currency is the pound, so you know from the outset exactly the cost of drinks and other extras without the worry of calculating how much you will get for your money.

As shore excursions can be booked and paid for in advance, it’s easy to work out the total holiday cost in advance without being exposed to the vagaries of exchange rates.

Cruise lines are also pushing a range of promotions at this time of year to further emphasise the value of cruise holidays. These might include free cabin upgrades, on board credit, free car parking at the departure port or free transfers to join your ship.

All of which comes on top of all food, entertainment and child care being included in the price of the cruise.

The inclusive nature of a cruise holiday makes it easy to budget irrespective of which part of the world your ship happens to be sailing in.

Which counters the apparent fear of more than 40% of us that we won’t have enough spending money on holiday in 2009.

This piece of information emerged from research conducted by industry body ABTA (the Association of British Travel Agents) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office which suggested that cost conscious travellers skipping the eurozone in 2009 will be heading for countries such as Turkey, Egypt and Mexico – coincidentally, all popular cruise destinations.

Meanwhile, British Airways predicted its top ten long haul destinations for 2009 at the turn of the year and, guess what? All but one – Johannesburg for the British Lions tour – can be reached on a cruise.

The other nine – Cape Town, Dubai, San Francisco, New York, Hong Kong, St Kitts, St Lucia, Sydney and Shanghai – all feature on various cruise lines’ itineraries.

In these troubled financial times, cruising continues to provide amazing value and is a safe bet at a time when other travel companies may be struggling.

As for my new year’s resolution: never believe everything you read about holiday statistics.

Phil Davies

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